Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Statistical Evidence Saturday's JP Bowl Will Be The Most Boring Game You Watch All Season

Now, you may say that any game in which Houston Nutt is at the controls of one team makes this impossible, because at any point with Nutt things could go from pleasant afternoon to SO MUCH FIRE AND BLOOD OH THE AGONY in the time it takes Nutt to speak an independent thought (note:  .48 seconds).  However, two games into the season, which is a terrible sample size, but will be hammered into place to make it work here, the numbers tell of a different tale.  And might I remind you these numbers were compiled against the defensive juggernauts of BYU, Southern Illinois, Elon, and Connecticut.

Total Offense
Ole Miss:  261.5 yds/game (12th)
Vanderbilt:  284 yds/game (10th)

Rushing Offense
Ole Miss:  121.5 (12th)
Vanderbilt:  125 (11th)

Passing Offense
Ole Miss:  140 (10th)
Vanderbilt:  159 (9th)

First Downs
Ole Miss:  15.5 (9th)
Vanderbilt:  13 (11th)

3rd Down Conversion Percentage
Ole Miss:  28.6% (9th)
Vanderbilt:  20.7% (12th)

First Down Running Plays
My frustration with the Ole Miss offense drove me to look up every play in both games to collect this information
Ole Miss:  40
Out of 50 first down plays, 40 were runs and 10 were passes.  Broken down by game, it was 16 runs to 6 passes against SIU, and 24 runs to 4 passes against BYU.  That's what I call CUTTIN' IT LOOSE, HOUSTON NUTT AND DAVID LEE.

By contrast, Vanderbilt is running wide-ass open as the 10th-ranked offense in the SEC.  Through their first two games, they've had a total of 47 first down plays, with 23 runs and 24 passes.

Ugh.  It's only Tuesday and I really, really hate this game.

For additional reasons why this game will be awful, a reminder I wrote this summer.

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