Thursday, October 02, 2008

Weekend Picks

Made while watching Tampa Bay Rays fans ring miniature cowbells and listening to Harold Reynolds remind me why I smiled when he was fired from ESPN....

Last week: 5-2
Season: 26-4

Kentucky at Alabama
Kentucky appears to be the only team with worse success in Tuscaloosa than Ole Miss. Meaning, they've never won there. While this Kentucky team is undefeated, their most impressive win was over a bad Louisville team. Their other victims include two directional schools and Norfolk State, which, as you should surmise, aren't very good.

I'd still look for an Alabama letdown/slow start, much like their week two game against Tulane after they destroyed Clemson in week one. I think it's close for a half, then Alabama blows it open.

Florida at Arkansas
The perfect rebound game for Florida. They go on the road against a horrible defense and get the chance to work out their issues on offense, mainly their lack of a running back. Yeah, Percy Harvin went crazy last week, but in short yardage situations there was only Tim Tebow. Against good defenses (and mediocre ones) that's not going to work as well as it once did. I haven't seen every Florida play since Tebow began starting at quarterback, but I can't remember another short yardage play other than Tebow plowing ahead.

And Florida's defense will need figure out how they gave up 31 points after giving up only 19 on the season until last Saturday. They're fast, but their secondary isn't great and if you run straight at them you'll find some success. Unfortunately for Arkansas, none of Florida's problems are bad enough to help them win the game. Against ranked opponents this year, Arkansas has been outscored 101-24. And by the way, that's a total of two games. Florida pads some stats this week.

Auburn at Vanderbilt
The Sports Gods get another laugh at the expense of Ole Miss as GameDay will be in Nashville this Saturday. However, we'll get the last laugh when 47 people show up on Saturday morning, half of which will be Auburn fans looking for a place to tailgate.

I don't really care who does it, but please, someone show the country that Vanderbilt stinks. Auburn's defense is obviously good enough to shut down Vandy's offense, but the way Auburn's offense stays in neutral could mean this game stays close. And can someone explain to me why Auburn fans get excited when Kodi Burns comes in the game? Sure he's a great athlete, but he is a terrible, TERRIBLE quarterback. I know Chris Todd sucks, but holy crap, this team is 4-1 and one or two plays from being 5-0 (and I know you can make the argument they're one or two plays from being 2-3, but they're not). When you have a great defense, you can get away with having a crappy quarterback. Auburn's defense is good, but not good enough to overcome the turnover waiting to happen that is Kodi Burns. Auburn wins and the fan bitching reaches new levels.

South Carolina at Ole Miss
As of five o'clock today, Stephen Garcia has not keyed a professor's car, gotten in a drunken fistfight, or missed every class since Saturday. Which, of course, is good news for South Carolina as this prevents the artists known as Tommy Beecher and Chris Smelley from entering the game. More good news for South Carolina is the return of receiver Kenny McKinley. He gives the Gamecocks a competent receiver and more importantly replaces tight end Jared Cook as the team's best receiver.

As for Ole Miss, you better believe there's going to be a letdown/flat start. I've seen way too many Ole Miss games to ignore this. Hell, even if Ole Miss had lost last week they'd still come out flat. Crappy starts, that's what they do. It's science.

I think the Ole Miss defensive line dominates again. From the two South Carolina games I've watched, their offensive line was awful so I don't see how they'll be able to put up many points. I know South Carolina's defense is currently ranked number one in the country, but for some reason they don't really scare me. I know they were great against Georgia, but they always seem to have Georgia's number. Of course, there is an extremely high probability I'm wrong, but I think Ole Miss will be able to move the ball. I'm not saying they'll be up in the thirties again, but I would expect some points. An above .500 record in the SEC for Ole Miss? Surely you jest.

Directional School at Tennessee
Another week and another end to a crappy quarterback era? This could be the end for Jonathan Crompton, so drink it in.

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