As poor as the quality of play has been in the SEC this year, this week begins an exciting few weeks in which teams will either begin to propel themselves to the success of a warm bowl game, make preparations for another layer of clothing for a cold bowl game or meet the miserable failure of not making a bowl its fans began to fear in July. The two top teams in the league, Alabama and Florida, are steadily moving (although sometimes in really choppy steps) towards an Armageddon game in Atlanta on which the fate of the world will rest (or so CBS would want you to believe). For the rest of the teams, they’re all fighting whatever’s left. Most coveted are warm spots in Florida, the Georgia Dome or hope that it’s inexplicably 70 degrees in Dallas in January. The worst of the scraps include bone-chilling visits to Shreveport, Memphis and Nashville in December. While all bowl games are a nice trip (especially if you haven’t been in a few years), dressing like I’m going to spend the night in the Gobi Desert isn’t how I prefer to watch football games.
Made while welcoming back the rain that took a 72-hour break before getting cranked up again…
Last week: 5-1
Season: 47-8 (.855)
Arkansas at Ole Miss
In keeping with the theme of the opening paragraph, Arkansas currently sits at 3-3. They have non-conference games against Troy and Eastern Michigan, which should get them to 5-3, and they also have South Carolina and Mississippi State at home. If Arkansas were to beat Ole Miss this weekend and gain some momentum before the South Carolina game in two weeks and actually win that, they could easily be looking at 8-3 headed into the season-ending LSU game and a visit to one of those warm places. If they lose to Ole Miss, that final record could look much closer to 6-6 and a trip to Memphis or Shreveport would be in the works.
Ole Miss is 4-2 with five conference games (and Northern Arizona) left to play. And I have absolutely no idea what could happen. If they were to beat Arkansas, maybe that would send them on another scorched earth run to the end of the season, or it could simply mean that Arkansas has been playing over its head and Ole Miss could still finish 6-6. They could also lose and go on another run or finish 6-6. It’s like last year all over again, except last year they were 3-4 before laying waste to the rest of the schedule. The schedule is set up where it’s possible to finish 10-2, but this team has not shown that it’s capable of doing that. Perhaps like last year, the Arkansas game will be the start of such a run, but there’s also a great chance it will serve to show that Ole Miss still has too many holes on offense to do anything more than 7-5.
As for the game, Arkansas does one thing really well, which is passing. In fact, they average a little more than 70 yards than the number two team, Georgia, in passing offense. Although in the past three games, they’ve shown some life in the running game, going for 133, 221 and 163 (Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M, so one legitimate defense). Offensively, I expect Ryan Mallett to get some numbers. He’s too big and strong not to have a decent to good day. However, good defenses have the ability to make one-dimensional teams play very poorly and Ole Miss has a good defense. I expect Ole Miss to follow Alabama’s game plan and really get after Mallett. He’s not the fleetest of foot and when rattled tends to throw incompletions in large quantities. If the Hogs are going to win, they’ll have to have some of the ground game magic they’ve recently discovered.
For Ole Miss, they’re facing a defense that while not good, has shown flashes of being good, especially against the run. They were able to really give Florida problems because Florida is not very good at throwing. Even an average defense can make life difficult for one-dimensional offenses. So that means that if Jevan Snead hasn’t figured out what the hell he’s doing, the Rebels are going to have issues in advancing the ball forward. And the fact that this game is a pretty crucial point in the season, I’m willing to bet Snead has one half to show that he isn’t completely incompetent. If he struggles and stars throwing passes to the ground and Arkansas instead of his receivers, it could be the end of his 2009 season. The season is still salvageable for Ole Miss and Houston Nutt knows he can’t keep waiting on his quarterback to figure out where the 2008 version of himself went.
I still don’t think Arkansas is very good, especially on defense. I like Ole Miss in this one to put up just enough to get by, much like last year’s game. As long as the Rebels don’t turn it over and lean on their defense, they should come out of this one 5-2.
Tennessee at Alabama
Lane Kiffin was hired in November of 2008. Lane Kiffin just signed his contract in October of 2009. Now maybe that’s not that big of a deal, but the only other coach I can remember not signing his contract was former Kentucky basketball coach Billy Gillispie, which ended well to quite well. And in even more crazy behavior, Kiffin allowed the Shrimp Boat Captain to convince him it would be a good idea to fly a helicopter onto the grounds of a high school game for recruiting purposes last Friday. I’ve said it before, but the sky really is the limit when it comes to absurd behavior in the Lane Kiffin era.
Unfortunately, the sky is also the limit for Jonathan Crompton’s suckiness in this game. Alabama’s defense destroys quarterbacks, even the ones that can be labeled as marginally good. As you know, Crompton isn’t very good and his performance on Saturday will be made even worse than his normal 40% completions and two to three interceptions performance. In order to keep the damage to a minimum, I expect we’ll see much of the same gameplan the Vols used at Florida. Lots of runs, a few more runs after that and some basic screen and rollout plays in which Crompton will be given his chance to show of his inaccuracy.
Tennessee’s defense will keep this one fairly close in terms of score, but there won’t be any doubt about who will win the game. Alabama dominates.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina
Much like Ole Miss, South Carolina has managed to lose its last two games against Vandy before this season. And much like Ole Miss this season, I look for South Carolina to pound Vandy further into the misery that is their 2009 season, and Vanderbilt football in general. Interestingly enough, the Commodores are currently ranked ahead of LSU in total offense. Not that it means anything in this game, but a note worth noting. Vanderbilt trudges on towards a 2007 Ed Orgeron SEC record.
Former Directional School at Kentucky
Kentucky.
Florida at Mississippi State
In order for Mississippi State to keep the curse of Starkville going against Florida, Tyson Lee and Chris Relf will need to have the best day of football they’ve ever played in their lives. And even if they achieve that, they’ll still need more if you consider that their best days ever are probably nothing more than an average quarterback performance. I think we’ll see a second straight game where the Florida offense struggles at times to move the ball, but I would be surprised if State is fortunate enough to have the Gators fumble four times like they did last week.
Even if the State defense stops being one of the worst in the conference (9th), they just don’t have enough on offense, mainly at quarterback. But that should be good news to State fans, who, after being trapped in the dark ages of the Sylvester Croom era, have legitimate hope that their team could eventually called frisky if they find a relatively skilled and competent quarterback.
Auburn at LSU
LSU’s chance to surpass Vanderbilt as the worst offense in the SEC takes a giant leap this week as the Auburn defense comes rolling into town. And even better for LSU, the Auburn rush defense is ranked 11th, which means LSU coaches will have even less incentive to allow Jordan Jefferson to throw the ball. Of course, this is Les Miles we’re talking about so I’d look for close to 45 passes from Jefferson. Hell, the backup quarterback might come in and throw 15.
LSU’s defense has shown an ability as of late to not suck as much as they were sucking. And given that Arkansas and Kentucky, who have much less talent than LSU, have shown how to stop (or in Arkansas’ case, slow down) the Auburn offense, I wouldn’t expect much out of Auburn in this game. Chris Todd stinks, their defense stinks and LSU is decent enough against the run that they’ll keep Auburn under control. So look for none of the above to happen. Except an LSU win.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
A segment in which I take a question about college football that may or may not be from a real person.
Every reader of the Belly of the Beast writes:
“What takes longer, a Major League Baseball playoff game, Ed Orgeron winning an SEC game or you getting your two damn posts a week up?”
A fantastic question. I did about four seconds of research and have decided that all MLB playoff games average roughly eight hours and seventeen minutes to complete. I used to think baseball was not a physically taxing sport, but I have to say, standing around for eight hours would literally kill me. And listening to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver for that long would kill my soul.
Ed Orgeron last won an SEC game as a head coach on November 25th, 2006. His next time to experience an SEC victory as a coach (not head coach) was October 10th, 2009, almost three years. And in that time span, only 2008 saw him not involved in the SEC.
As for me, it’s a miracle that I even get up two posts a week. I can’t accurately describe just how much I love to procrastinate and be lazy. Somehow, as I’ve gotten older, my attention span has gotten even smaller. If I can focus on anything for more than 11 seconds, I’m impressed with myself. What’s that shiny object over there? A piece of tin? How interesting! Oh, look, a nickel!
So to answer your question, Ed Orgeron winning an SEC game takes the longest of the three. But another couple of years and I might take the lead.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
From the Weekend That Was
This weekend was one of discoveries. We found out that one dominant team isn’t so dominant, one dominant team doesn’t really need its quarterback and a once hot team does indeed stink. But most importantly, we found out that, and I know I said I’d never talk about women’s basketball on here but this is too good, the 2008 WNBA champion Detroit Shock is leaving Detroit for the high-powered TV market that is, drum roll please…..Tulsa, Oklahoma!!! If we had a live satellite feed into his house, we could see NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is vigorously applauding this move right now (For those of you who don’t know what the NHL is, it was a growing league of a sport called hockey in the early 90s. It is now found on the Versus Network and ranks behind the Rodeo Clown Olympics in terms of major sports in America.). And even more bizarre than the move is that former Arkansas Razorbacks coach Nolan Richardson is set to become the team’s coach and GM. Who says the WNBA is in trouble?
GAME RECAPS
Georgia 34, Vanderbilt 10
I watched about ten minutes of this game before I realized I actually wasn’t watching a public access channel and the teams I was watching were actually not high school teams. The crowd, the 60-minute barrage of incompetence and the general disinterest from everyone involved in the game made this contest one of the leading candidates for the worst game of the year. I’m sure I’ve made that claim about multiple games this season, and I will go back and get the list together, but this really was one of the worst. Had the Oklahoma/Texas game also not been so miserable, I would have only seen the 10 minutes I thought this was a high school game. I’d really like to never watch either of these teams play again the rest of the year.
Mississippi State 27, Directional School 6
Nice job by State for finally completing a game without giving the ball away in large quantities. In fact, they had zero turnovers for the game. I’ve really got nothing to say here, other than kudos to the photographer who managed to get this shot of quarterback Tyson Lee on the sidelines. He’s a little taller than I make him out to be.
Florida 23, Arkansas 20
Another masterfully, poorly officiated game in the SEC. Whether it was a bad pass interference call or a personal foul that wasn’t a personal foul, Arkansas never did catch any breaks with the bad calls. The Hogs finished with 10 penalties for 92 yards while the Gators had only three for 16 yards, which is fairly absurd. I find it hard to believe there’s ever legitimately 76 yards worth of penalties difference in any college football game. But Arkansas fans should take comfort in the statement released by the SEC yesterday in which they said, “Whoops. They shouldn’t have called that personal foul on Malcolm Sheppard.” I know that makes it all better.
Instead of a stupid apology of sorts, how about giving the schools on the receiving ends of terrible calls something they can use? Like maybe cold, hard cash to help cover their travel expenses. Or an old jalopy and a sledgehammer like they have at a fair so they can beat the living hell out of the car and their frustrations with a conference that employs part time referees and refuses to spend some of the eleventy billion dollars it makes on properly training and paying full-time officials. Or a commemorative plaque the school could hang on the wall, or throw through the wall when it actually arrives. Throw these guys a bone after you just potentially cost them large sums of money that come with going to a bowl game.
As for the playing of the game, we found out Florida’s offense really isn’t that good. They have no vertical passing game to speak of, and outside of Cooper and Hernandez, I can’t name another receiver. Yes, they did manage to hit a long pass play for their first touchdown, but that seemed to be the result of the Arkansas defensive back blowing coverage. When Florida meets a better defense than the worst one in the conference, things like that won’t happen. Of course, if Florida doesn’t turn the ball over four times (and twice inside the ten), this game probably isn’t close, but Florida has some serious questions about their passing offense. And their defense was a little shaky as well. I don’t know if that had to do with Brandon Spikes not playing most of the game, but Arkansas showed you can run right at them and they’ll struggle to stop it. If Florida and Alabama played tomorrow, Alabama would win by two touchdowns.
On the Arkansas side, Ryan Mallet really has problems against fast, aggressive defenses. Take away his 75-yard touchdown pass, which was a great throw and play by him, and he finishes 11 for 26 and 149 yards. He missed a couple of touchdowns, one to a receiver and one to a fullback, and generally seemed off all day. So future opponents (ahem, Ole Miss) take note, pressure, pressure, pressure ruins this guy’s day.
As much grief as I give the Arkansas defense, I thought they played really well. They made running the ball very hard for Florida (only average three yards a carry) and other than the long touchdown pass they gave up, did a pretty solid job against the pass. That’s two straight weeks that they’ve been able to make life very difficult for teams that rely heavily on the run. Again, Ole Miss, take note.
Ole Miss 48, UAB 13
It took six games and a defense that is one of the country’s worst, but the Ole Miss offense finally looked like a well-run operation for an entire game. Yes, they blew out Memphis and SELA, but even those games had no consistent offensive flow. I’m not sure how much of that should be attributed to UAB’s awfulness, but it was a pretty mistake-free performance by Ole Miss. Much like the State/MTSU game, there’s not much to say here. Unfortunately, I don’t have a picture that represents Jevan Snead’s poor decision-making and incomplete passes, but if I did I would post it here.
Kentucky 21, Auburn 14
Welcome back to the rest of the pack known as reality, Auburn. I wrote last week that Kentucky would lose because they had the worst run defense in the SEC and Auburn would have a field day against them. This was true to a degree. Auburn did run for 220 yards, but I failed to realize that Auburn too had an atrocious run defense and that without its starting quarterback Kentucky would do nothing but run. And they did to the tune of 282 yards and had two guys that went over 100 yards.
It was a game so exciting that both teams combined for 170 yards passing, with Auburn’s Chris Todd leading the way with a 10 of 24, 80 yards and one interception showing. Again, when you hear analyst types lamenting the struggles of Todd, remember he’s not struggling, this is who he is. He stinks. I can’t emphasize this enough because in three weeks, he’s going to light Furman up and people will claim he’s getting back to form for a final push against Georgia and Alabama. Do not be fooled by this nonsense.
I mentioned penalties in the Arkansas/Florida game and I’ll mention it here. Auburn had 10 for 76 yards and Kentucky had, get this, zero for zero yards. I didn’t watch any of this game, so I have no idea if Auburn has any beef with the calls against them, but I do not believe for one second a team composed of 18-22 year old did not make one mistake all night.
And one final thought, Auburn has an outstanding chance to finish the season 6-6 after a 5-0 start. They have LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Furman to go. They’ll beat Furman and probably their best chance to win another is at Georgia (thanks to their offensive and defensive incompetence) and at home against Ole Miss. I doubt they win both of those and at this point I think the best they can hope for is 7-5, which is two more wins than Gene Chizik had when he started this season.
Alabama 20, South Carolina 6
As this game was ending, Todd Blackledge made a statement that he was obviously very impressed with Alabama’s defense, but would be a little concerned with a team that takes away their ability to run. And this is true. As I’ve said before, Greg McElroy is a very average SEC quarterback and he showed it in this game (10 of 20, 92 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT). But, to Blackledge’s point, does it really matter if they struggle running the ball against a good team? With the defense they have, Alabama just has to be bad at the run. If they can churn out 100 yards on the ground and have a few decent pass plays without any turnovers, they’ll win every game. I said it last week, but until you see the Alabama defense in person, you can’t appreciate how big and fast they really are.
Unfortunately for South Carolina, Alabama didn’t struggle running the ball. Mark Ingram, doing his best to become the next Darren McFadden of the SEC, ripped off 246 yards and AVERAGED 10.3 yards a carry. Had Alabama been able to mix in any success by way of the pass, they would have won by a couple of more scores.
All things considered, I thought Stephen Garcia played pretty well. He had no running game to support him and was under constant pressure, and even though he only completed 20 of 46 passes, he looked the least incompetent of any quarterback I’ve seen play Alabama. This, of course, is sad news to me because I enjoyed the irresponsible, reckless Stephen Garcia era and I think it’s now a thing of the past. I know he’ll still show a few flashes of the good ol’ days, but it won’t ever be the same again.
GAME I DIDN’T PICK BUT DESERVES MENTION HERE
Purdue 26, Ohio State 18
Even though Ohio State lost to one of the many terrible Big Ten teams, it still has a legitimate chance to win the Big Ten and go to a BCS game. If they win out, which includes beating Iowa, who is currently undefeated, the Buckeyes will go to a BCS game (most likely the Rose Bowl). For the love of all things holy, is it possible to not see Ohio State in a BCS game for just one freaking year? I think as punishment for a team that has clogged more TVs with bad football than any other team I can remember, the Buckeyes should be shipped to Boise for the always cold and depressing Humanitarian Bowl. There, they’ll be out of everyone’s way, no one will have to watch their game since no one knows when that bowl game is and they might actually win a game in December or January outside the state of Ohio.
DEUCE MCALLISTER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who dominated with or without the help of his teammates and coaches.)
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
As mentioned above, Ingram destroyed the South Carolina defense and allowed Alabama to continue its march to Atlanta unscathed. While not as visually appealing and smooth as Darren McFadden, Ingram is making a push for us to get an apartment together. Seven games into the season and he’s already sitting at 900 yards and eight touchdowns. With the remaining Alabama schedule (Tennessee, LSU, State, Chattanooga and Auburn), he could easily hit 1600 yards at 15 touchdowns.
ERIC OLIVER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who caused his team’s fans the highest degree of wailing and gnashing of teeth due to blown assignments and generally piss poor play.)
Chris Todd, QB, Auburn
To put his miserable showing in an even more miserable light, Todd averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt, which is about as far as a small child can throw a football. For comparison, and again this was against UAB, but Jevan Snead averaged 10.9 yards per attempt on 22 tries.
JOHN VAUGHT OF THE WEEK
(Given to the coach who dominated whatever task was in front of him.)
Nick Saban, Alabama
This was a winner more by default than anything else, although credit was earned by Saban for dominating the team that had the last real chance to upset this Alabama team. I don’t know how he does it, but the man can really coach defense. Yes, he has outstanding talent, but even the LSU defenses of a few years ago that were loaded with NFL talent weren’t this good.
2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy Leaderboard
The trophy, which gets its name from the reaction of fans when their team’s quarterback throws an interception (“Awww-shit!!!), will be awarded at the end of the year to the quarterback in the SEC who throws the most interceptions. A more prestigious award I cannot recall.
Week 7 Standings
1. Jonathan Crompton 9
1. Jevan Snead 9
1. Joe Cox 9
4. Larry Smith 7
5. Tyson Lee 6
5. Mike Hartline 6
WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEK
Arkansas at Ole Miss
Houston Nutt will always want revenge and Arkansas fans will always want to explain how horrible Houston Nutt is/was. Put the two together in the same state, stadium and an 11:20 AM start time and we should have some surly people.
Tennessee at Alabama
Brace yourselves for the potential worst quarterback rating in modern history when Jonathan Crompton is forced to throw 20+ times against the Alabama defense.
Florida at Mississippi State
Florida’s last three trips to Starkville resulted in fans running all over the field and tearing down anything they could get their hands on. Will the curse continue or will Tyson Lee prevent it from happening?
GAME RECAPS
Georgia 34, Vanderbilt 10
I watched about ten minutes of this game before I realized I actually wasn’t watching a public access channel and the teams I was watching were actually not high school teams. The crowd, the 60-minute barrage of incompetence and the general disinterest from everyone involved in the game made this contest one of the leading candidates for the worst game of the year. I’m sure I’ve made that claim about multiple games this season, and I will go back and get the list together, but this really was one of the worst. Had the Oklahoma/Texas game also not been so miserable, I would have only seen the 10 minutes I thought this was a high school game. I’d really like to never watch either of these teams play again the rest of the year.
Mississippi State 27, Directional School 6
Nice job by State for finally completing a game without giving the ball away in large quantities. In fact, they had zero turnovers for the game. I’ve really got nothing to say here, other than kudos to the photographer who managed to get this shot of quarterback Tyson Lee on the sidelines. He’s a little taller than I make him out to be.
Florida 23, Arkansas 20
Another masterfully, poorly officiated game in the SEC. Whether it was a bad pass interference call or a personal foul that wasn’t a personal foul, Arkansas never did catch any breaks with the bad calls. The Hogs finished with 10 penalties for 92 yards while the Gators had only three for 16 yards, which is fairly absurd. I find it hard to believe there’s ever legitimately 76 yards worth of penalties difference in any college football game. But Arkansas fans should take comfort in the statement released by the SEC yesterday in which they said, “Whoops. They shouldn’t have called that personal foul on Malcolm Sheppard.” I know that makes it all better.
Instead of a stupid apology of sorts, how about giving the schools on the receiving ends of terrible calls something they can use? Like maybe cold, hard cash to help cover their travel expenses. Or an old jalopy and a sledgehammer like they have at a fair so they can beat the living hell out of the car and their frustrations with a conference that employs part time referees and refuses to spend some of the eleventy billion dollars it makes on properly training and paying full-time officials. Or a commemorative plaque the school could hang on the wall, or throw through the wall when it actually arrives. Throw these guys a bone after you just potentially cost them large sums of money that come with going to a bowl game.
As for the playing of the game, we found out Florida’s offense really isn’t that good. They have no vertical passing game to speak of, and outside of Cooper and Hernandez, I can’t name another receiver. Yes, they did manage to hit a long pass play for their first touchdown, but that seemed to be the result of the Arkansas defensive back blowing coverage. When Florida meets a better defense than the worst one in the conference, things like that won’t happen. Of course, if Florida doesn’t turn the ball over four times (and twice inside the ten), this game probably isn’t close, but Florida has some serious questions about their passing offense. And their defense was a little shaky as well. I don’t know if that had to do with Brandon Spikes not playing most of the game, but Arkansas showed you can run right at them and they’ll struggle to stop it. If Florida and Alabama played tomorrow, Alabama would win by two touchdowns.
On the Arkansas side, Ryan Mallet really has problems against fast, aggressive defenses. Take away his 75-yard touchdown pass, which was a great throw and play by him, and he finishes 11 for 26 and 149 yards. He missed a couple of touchdowns, one to a receiver and one to a fullback, and generally seemed off all day. So future opponents (ahem, Ole Miss) take note, pressure, pressure, pressure ruins this guy’s day.
As much grief as I give the Arkansas defense, I thought they played really well. They made running the ball very hard for Florida (only average three yards a carry) and other than the long touchdown pass they gave up, did a pretty solid job against the pass. That’s two straight weeks that they’ve been able to make life very difficult for teams that rely heavily on the run. Again, Ole Miss, take note.
Ole Miss 48, UAB 13
It took six games and a defense that is one of the country’s worst, but the Ole Miss offense finally looked like a well-run operation for an entire game. Yes, they blew out Memphis and SELA, but even those games had no consistent offensive flow. I’m not sure how much of that should be attributed to UAB’s awfulness, but it was a pretty mistake-free performance by Ole Miss. Much like the State/MTSU game, there’s not much to say here. Unfortunately, I don’t have a picture that represents Jevan Snead’s poor decision-making and incomplete passes, but if I did I would post it here.
Kentucky 21, Auburn 14
Welcome back to the rest of the pack known as reality, Auburn. I wrote last week that Kentucky would lose because they had the worst run defense in the SEC and Auburn would have a field day against them. This was true to a degree. Auburn did run for 220 yards, but I failed to realize that Auburn too had an atrocious run defense and that without its starting quarterback Kentucky would do nothing but run. And they did to the tune of 282 yards and had two guys that went over 100 yards.
It was a game so exciting that both teams combined for 170 yards passing, with Auburn’s Chris Todd leading the way with a 10 of 24, 80 yards and one interception showing. Again, when you hear analyst types lamenting the struggles of Todd, remember he’s not struggling, this is who he is. He stinks. I can’t emphasize this enough because in three weeks, he’s going to light Furman up and people will claim he’s getting back to form for a final push against Georgia and Alabama. Do not be fooled by this nonsense.
I mentioned penalties in the Arkansas/Florida game and I’ll mention it here. Auburn had 10 for 76 yards and Kentucky had, get this, zero for zero yards. I didn’t watch any of this game, so I have no idea if Auburn has any beef with the calls against them, but I do not believe for one second a team composed of 18-22 year old did not make one mistake all night.
And one final thought, Auburn has an outstanding chance to finish the season 6-6 after a 5-0 start. They have LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Furman to go. They’ll beat Furman and probably their best chance to win another is at Georgia (thanks to their offensive and defensive incompetence) and at home against Ole Miss. I doubt they win both of those and at this point I think the best they can hope for is 7-5, which is two more wins than Gene Chizik had when he started this season.
Alabama 20, South Carolina 6
As this game was ending, Todd Blackledge made a statement that he was obviously very impressed with Alabama’s defense, but would be a little concerned with a team that takes away their ability to run. And this is true. As I’ve said before, Greg McElroy is a very average SEC quarterback and he showed it in this game (10 of 20, 92 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT). But, to Blackledge’s point, does it really matter if they struggle running the ball against a good team? With the defense they have, Alabama just has to be bad at the run. If they can churn out 100 yards on the ground and have a few decent pass plays without any turnovers, they’ll win every game. I said it last week, but until you see the Alabama defense in person, you can’t appreciate how big and fast they really are.
Unfortunately for South Carolina, Alabama didn’t struggle running the ball. Mark Ingram, doing his best to become the next Darren McFadden of the SEC, ripped off 246 yards and AVERAGED 10.3 yards a carry. Had Alabama been able to mix in any success by way of the pass, they would have won by a couple of more scores.
All things considered, I thought Stephen Garcia played pretty well. He had no running game to support him and was under constant pressure, and even though he only completed 20 of 46 passes, he looked the least incompetent of any quarterback I’ve seen play Alabama. This, of course, is sad news to me because I enjoyed the irresponsible, reckless Stephen Garcia era and I think it’s now a thing of the past. I know he’ll still show a few flashes of the good ol’ days, but it won’t ever be the same again.
GAME I DIDN’T PICK BUT DESERVES MENTION HERE
Purdue 26, Ohio State 18
Even though Ohio State lost to one of the many terrible Big Ten teams, it still has a legitimate chance to win the Big Ten and go to a BCS game. If they win out, which includes beating Iowa, who is currently undefeated, the Buckeyes will go to a BCS game (most likely the Rose Bowl). For the love of all things holy, is it possible to not see Ohio State in a BCS game for just one freaking year? I think as punishment for a team that has clogged more TVs with bad football than any other team I can remember, the Buckeyes should be shipped to Boise for the always cold and depressing Humanitarian Bowl. There, they’ll be out of everyone’s way, no one will have to watch their game since no one knows when that bowl game is and they might actually win a game in December or January outside the state of Ohio.
DEUCE MCALLISTER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who dominated with or without the help of his teammates and coaches.)
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
As mentioned above, Ingram destroyed the South Carolina defense and allowed Alabama to continue its march to Atlanta unscathed. While not as visually appealing and smooth as Darren McFadden, Ingram is making a push for us to get an apartment together. Seven games into the season and he’s already sitting at 900 yards and eight touchdowns. With the remaining Alabama schedule (Tennessee, LSU, State, Chattanooga and Auburn), he could easily hit 1600 yards at 15 touchdowns.
ERIC OLIVER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who caused his team’s fans the highest degree of wailing and gnashing of teeth due to blown assignments and generally piss poor play.)
Chris Todd, QB, Auburn
To put his miserable showing in an even more miserable light, Todd averaged 3.3 yards per pass attempt, which is about as far as a small child can throw a football. For comparison, and again this was against UAB, but Jevan Snead averaged 10.9 yards per attempt on 22 tries.
JOHN VAUGHT OF THE WEEK
(Given to the coach who dominated whatever task was in front of him.)
Nick Saban, Alabama
This was a winner more by default than anything else, although credit was earned by Saban for dominating the team that had the last real chance to upset this Alabama team. I don’t know how he does it, but the man can really coach defense. Yes, he has outstanding talent, but even the LSU defenses of a few years ago that were loaded with NFL talent weren’t this good.
2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy Leaderboard
The trophy, which gets its name from the reaction of fans when their team’s quarterback throws an interception (“Awww-shit!!!), will be awarded at the end of the year to the quarterback in the SEC who throws the most interceptions. A more prestigious award I cannot recall.
Week 7 Standings
1. Jonathan Crompton 9
1. Jevan Snead 9
1. Joe Cox 9
4. Larry Smith 7
5. Tyson Lee 6
5. Mike Hartline 6
WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEK
Arkansas at Ole Miss
Houston Nutt will always want revenge and Arkansas fans will always want to explain how horrible Houston Nutt is/was. Put the two together in the same state, stadium and an 11:20 AM start time and we should have some surly people.
Tennessee at Alabama
Brace yourselves for the potential worst quarterback rating in modern history when Jonathan Crompton is forced to throw 20+ times against the Alabama defense.
Florida at Mississippi State
Florida’s last three trips to Starkville resulted in fans running all over the field and tearing down anything they could get their hands on. Will the curse continue or will Tyson Lee prevent it from happening?
Thursday, October 15, 2009
SEC Picks of Week 7
It appears the call-in show has fallen on hard times. Call it lack of technology, effort and ability to create decent content three times a week around here, but whatever the reason, it has apparently died (and what a great two weeks it was). So in hopes of keeping the spirit of it alive, I’ve added a little more material to the weekly SEC picks. This week following the picks, you’ll find some more content. By doing this, I only have to come up with two posts a week instead of three, which is a royal pain in the ass (or so I’ve heard from those who actually do post three times a week), and now you’ll get two lengthy, mildly well-thought-out posts a week. And if you were counting, this week’s weekend recap came in at a whopping 2800 words, which should never happen again. Reading 2800 words on three-day old news is absurd. On to the picks…
Made while enjoying ESPN’s unintentional tribute to Sean Connery’s finest work on SNL’s Celebrity Jeopardy.
Last week: 4-3
Season: 42-7 (.857)
Georgia at Vanderbilt
Congratulations to Georgia for successfully wrestling away the 12th spot in scoring defense from Arkansas. It was quite an effort they put up last week against Tennessee and now thanks to that effort, Hog fans can now claim there is one defensive category in which they are not last. I’d like to see Georgia catch Arkansas for worst total defense, but with the Bulldogs facing a trapped-in-a-coma Vanderbilt offense and the Hogs facing Florida, I don’t think it will happen. Yet.
Anyway, as for the actual game being played here, Vanderbilt has revealed itself to be absolutely horrible, at least on offense. Their defense has a little feistiness in it, but unless it learns to score, the Commodores have no hope. As awful as Georgia has become, they’ve got more to offer than Vandy. I look for a depressing, sloppy, miserable game, perfectly fitting of the old Jefferson Pilot time slot. If only Dave Rowe could replace Andre Ware and be with his old buddy Dave Neal, it would be just like old times. Georgia wins, yet keeps its fans in the spiral of depression known as the 2009 season and boosts liquor sales across the state of Georgia.
Mississippi State at Directional School
Thanks to the last three games, Mississippi State has come out of nowhere to challenge Georgia for the last spot in the turnover margin department. Georgia has an impressive total of -11, but State is closing fast at -8. It’s another thrilling race in failure between two bad teams.
I know almost nothing about MTSU (there’s a zero percent chance I’m going to ever type that out). I can tell you they’re in the Sun Belt, they recently lost to Troy and former Auburn offense coordinator Tony Franklin is now employed there. I have no idea if Troy is good (I say no) and couldn’t say how Franklin is doing in running the offense. What I do know is that despite Tyson Lee’s tendency to destroy his team’s chances of winning through turnovers and lack of skill, it shouldn’t matter here. If last year’s atrociously coached team could bumble its way through a win over this team, I say this year’s better-coached version should be able to do the same. If not, welcome to a 2-10 season Bulldogs.
Arkansas at Florida
There seems to be a belief this week that since Arkansas defeated an unbeaten Auburn team they must be turning some sort of imaginary corner toward being a good team this season. I am here to tell you that when you beat an average, overrated team at home, you are not turning a corner because you still stink. Last time I checked Arkansas is still horrible on defense. Unless they suddenly got faster and less terrible in the past few days, I’m pretty sure they’re still bad. Throttling a Chris Todd-led offense does not make you a good defense. Let’s keep that in mind going forward.
Remember what Alabama’s defense did to this Arkansas offense a few weeks ago? Expect more of the same slapping around to go on this week. Florida’s defense, which is probably not as good as Alabama’s but is still outstanding (sort of like the difference between Wendy’s regular chicken sandwich and the spicy chicken sandwich), currently is number one in the SEC in total defense (yes, I am aware I just made one claim then used stats that go against that claim, but whatever) and I expect they’ll give Mallett and company all sorts of problems, namely keeping him upright.
Even with the recently stagnant Florida offense due to their desire to prevent more “brain shakeage” (actual phrase used by an ESPNU analyst) in Tim Tebow’s head, they shouldn’t have much trouble putting up points. Florida cruises.
UAB at Ole Miss
How about we not talk about Ole Miss for one week? Since our scheduling debacle has prevented us from having an off-week, let’s just use this time to take one. Ole Miss will win, but I doubt any confidence will be restored.
Kentucky at Auburn
All you need to know about this game is that Kentucky is the worst defense in the league against the run. That should let you know that Auburn is going to have a field day against the Wildcats. I’m just disappointed we won’t be able to see any Mike Hartline interceptions since he’s out with an injury. Perhaps when he returns he’ll put on a strong show for everyone. Auburn wins.
South Carolina at Alabama
This has the potential to be an interesting game. Alabama is coming off a systematic destruction of Ole Miss, their first serious conference test of the year, and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, which is always a dangerous thing in college football. South Carolina has sort of been flying below everyone’s radar and currently sits 5-1 and a winner of four straight. Stephen Garcia is threatening to jump into the category labeled “good quarterbacks” and the Gamecock defense can be labeled as good now that they’ve corrected the problems from the Georgia disaster.
Two things could make this game not interesting. One, if Alabama maintains its machine-like execution and mental state. If they come prepared and without high opinion of themselves, they will dominate. They’ve got better players, especially their defense matching up with the South Carolina offense, and don’t make mistakes. And two, if South Carolina’s performance against Kentucky was not because they were overlooking them but because they really aren’t that good. A two-point win at home over Kentucky is not an indication of a good team.
I think South Carolina will keep this one interesting a little longer than expected. Much like the Ole Miss game, Alabama’s offense will have an easier time moving the ball on South Carolina’s defense than the Gamecocks’ offense on Alabama’s defense (not that any of it will be easy). Even if South Carolina makes it really close, do you have any faith in Stephen Garcia against a good, aggressive defense? I know that I don’t. Alabama wins.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
A segment in which I take a question about college football that may or may not be from a real person.
Ricky from Alabama writes:
“Can we get some sort of hierarchy as far as the teams in the SEC go this season?”
Well, I certainly hope this is the Ricky from the video involving a battered dining room table and a grown man carrying a shaker inside a house. If so, I’m assuming he learned the word hierarchy from “the TV.” Anyway, as I see it, here’s how the SEC breaks down. And there are no rankings within each section.
GOOD TEAMS
Florida
Alabama
POTENTIALLY GOOD TEAMS
South Carolina
AVERAGE TEAMS
LSU
BELOW AVERAGE TEAMS THAT PROBABLY STINK
Auburn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State
TEAMS THAT STINK
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Only Florida and Alabama can beat everyone and no team can beat them. Everyone else can beat everyone else, except Vandy and Kentucky who can only beat each other. I’m not sure any of that made sense. But what all of this nonsense does mean is that it’s been a pretty bad year for SEC football. Not many great matchups and just a horde of not good teams playing each other in not very good games. I don’t know if this explosion of incompetence is due to a lack of quarterback skill, but that seems to me the most logical explanation.
Tim Tebow and Jevan Snead were the only two successful, talented and experienced quarterbacks in the conference coming into this year (and we see how Snead has turned out). Everyone else was new or terrible. At this point, you can say only Tebow, Greg McElroy, Chris Todd (who should start to some back to earth), Stephen Garcia and Ryan Mallet could be called successful right now. That’s less than half the conference trotting out anything good behind center, and by the end of the year I think that number will be even smaller (I’m looking at you Chris Todd and Stephen Garcia). I really noticed it last year, but if you don’t have anything competent playing quarterback, then you’re going to struggle, like so many SEC teams are this year. I hope this crap gets corrected next year because I’m tired of watching so many bad teams.
Made while enjoying ESPN’s unintentional tribute to Sean Connery’s finest work on SNL’s Celebrity Jeopardy.
Last week: 4-3
Season: 42-7 (.857)
Georgia at Vanderbilt
Congratulations to Georgia for successfully wrestling away the 12th spot in scoring defense from Arkansas. It was quite an effort they put up last week against Tennessee and now thanks to that effort, Hog fans can now claim there is one defensive category in which they are not last. I’d like to see Georgia catch Arkansas for worst total defense, but with the Bulldogs facing a trapped-in-a-coma Vanderbilt offense and the Hogs facing Florida, I don’t think it will happen. Yet.
Anyway, as for the actual game being played here, Vanderbilt has revealed itself to be absolutely horrible, at least on offense. Their defense has a little feistiness in it, but unless it learns to score, the Commodores have no hope. As awful as Georgia has become, they’ve got more to offer than Vandy. I look for a depressing, sloppy, miserable game, perfectly fitting of the old Jefferson Pilot time slot. If only Dave Rowe could replace Andre Ware and be with his old buddy Dave Neal, it would be just like old times. Georgia wins, yet keeps its fans in the spiral of depression known as the 2009 season and boosts liquor sales across the state of Georgia.
Mississippi State at Directional School
Thanks to the last three games, Mississippi State has come out of nowhere to challenge Georgia for the last spot in the turnover margin department. Georgia has an impressive total of -11, but State is closing fast at -8. It’s another thrilling race in failure between two bad teams.
I know almost nothing about MTSU (there’s a zero percent chance I’m going to ever type that out). I can tell you they’re in the Sun Belt, they recently lost to Troy and former Auburn offense coordinator Tony Franklin is now employed there. I have no idea if Troy is good (I say no) and couldn’t say how Franklin is doing in running the offense. What I do know is that despite Tyson Lee’s tendency to destroy his team’s chances of winning through turnovers and lack of skill, it shouldn’t matter here. If last year’s atrociously coached team could bumble its way through a win over this team, I say this year’s better-coached version should be able to do the same. If not, welcome to a 2-10 season Bulldogs.
Arkansas at Florida
There seems to be a belief this week that since Arkansas defeated an unbeaten Auburn team they must be turning some sort of imaginary corner toward being a good team this season. I am here to tell you that when you beat an average, overrated team at home, you are not turning a corner because you still stink. Last time I checked Arkansas is still horrible on defense. Unless they suddenly got faster and less terrible in the past few days, I’m pretty sure they’re still bad. Throttling a Chris Todd-led offense does not make you a good defense. Let’s keep that in mind going forward.
Remember what Alabama’s defense did to this Arkansas offense a few weeks ago? Expect more of the same slapping around to go on this week. Florida’s defense, which is probably not as good as Alabama’s but is still outstanding (sort of like the difference between Wendy’s regular chicken sandwich and the spicy chicken sandwich), currently is number one in the SEC in total defense (yes, I am aware I just made one claim then used stats that go against that claim, but whatever) and I expect they’ll give Mallett and company all sorts of problems, namely keeping him upright.
Even with the recently stagnant Florida offense due to their desire to prevent more “brain shakeage” (actual phrase used by an ESPNU analyst) in Tim Tebow’s head, they shouldn’t have much trouble putting up points. Florida cruises.
UAB at Ole Miss
How about we not talk about Ole Miss for one week? Since our scheduling debacle has prevented us from having an off-week, let’s just use this time to take one. Ole Miss will win, but I doubt any confidence will be restored.
Kentucky at Auburn
All you need to know about this game is that Kentucky is the worst defense in the league against the run. That should let you know that Auburn is going to have a field day against the Wildcats. I’m just disappointed we won’t be able to see any Mike Hartline interceptions since he’s out with an injury. Perhaps when he returns he’ll put on a strong show for everyone. Auburn wins.
South Carolina at Alabama
This has the potential to be an interesting game. Alabama is coming off a systematic destruction of Ole Miss, their first serious conference test of the year, and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves, which is always a dangerous thing in college football. South Carolina has sort of been flying below everyone’s radar and currently sits 5-1 and a winner of four straight. Stephen Garcia is threatening to jump into the category labeled “good quarterbacks” and the Gamecock defense can be labeled as good now that they’ve corrected the problems from the Georgia disaster.
Two things could make this game not interesting. One, if Alabama maintains its machine-like execution and mental state. If they come prepared and without high opinion of themselves, they will dominate. They’ve got better players, especially their defense matching up with the South Carolina offense, and don’t make mistakes. And two, if South Carolina’s performance against Kentucky was not because they were overlooking them but because they really aren’t that good. A two-point win at home over Kentucky is not an indication of a good team.
I think South Carolina will keep this one interesting a little longer than expected. Much like the Ole Miss game, Alabama’s offense will have an easier time moving the ball on South Carolina’s defense than the Gamecocks’ offense on Alabama’s defense (not that any of it will be easy). Even if South Carolina makes it really close, do you have any faith in Stephen Garcia against a good, aggressive defense? I know that I don’t. Alabama wins.
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
A segment in which I take a question about college football that may or may not be from a real person.
Ricky from Alabama writes:
“Can we get some sort of hierarchy as far as the teams in the SEC go this season?”
Well, I certainly hope this is the Ricky from the video involving a battered dining room table and a grown man carrying a shaker inside a house. If so, I’m assuming he learned the word hierarchy from “the TV.” Anyway, as I see it, here’s how the SEC breaks down. And there are no rankings within each section.
GOOD TEAMS
Florida
Alabama
POTENTIALLY GOOD TEAMS
South Carolina
AVERAGE TEAMS
LSU
BELOW AVERAGE TEAMS THAT PROBABLY STINK
Auburn
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State
TEAMS THAT STINK
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Only Florida and Alabama can beat everyone and no team can beat them. Everyone else can beat everyone else, except Vandy and Kentucky who can only beat each other. I’m not sure any of that made sense. But what all of this nonsense does mean is that it’s been a pretty bad year for SEC football. Not many great matchups and just a horde of not good teams playing each other in not very good games. I don’t know if this explosion of incompetence is due to a lack of quarterback skill, but that seems to me the most logical explanation.
Tim Tebow and Jevan Snead were the only two successful, talented and experienced quarterbacks in the conference coming into this year (and we see how Snead has turned out). Everyone else was new or terrible. At this point, you can say only Tebow, Greg McElroy, Chris Todd (who should start to some back to earth), Stephen Garcia and Ryan Mallet could be called successful right now. That’s less than half the conference trotting out anything good behind center, and by the end of the year I think that number will be even smaller (I’m looking at you Chris Todd and Stephen Garcia). I really noticed it last year, but if you don’t have anything competent playing quarterback, then you’re going to struggle, like so many SEC teams are this year. I hope this crap gets corrected next year because I’m tired of watching so many bad teams.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
From the Weekend That Was
After a weekend spent with rain, mist, cold, little to no sunshine, a football team falling apart faster than an Ed Orgeron recruiting class, two fantasy football teams that can’t do anything right, incorrectly picking SEC games and an immediate regret from reintroducing Krystal to my body, I’d like someone with connections to place a phone call to the Pacific Northwest and tell them to come take their weather back. This is getting ridiculous. I’d like to see the sun before December starts.
GAME RECAPS
Arkansas 44, Auburn 23
That loud sound you heard early Saturday afternoon was not the collapse of the Ole Miss house of cards (that actually came later in the afternoon), but reality colliding headfirst with the Auburn bandwagon. As predicted, the Arkansas offense obliterated the Auburn defense and got just enough out of their defense to remind everyone that Auburn, while better than last year, isn’t that good.
The Hogs ran up 495 yards of total offense, held the ball for over 38 minutes and at one point led 34-3. If they had any form of defense, they would have won this one by an even larger margin. But give credit to the Auburn offense for finally recognizing that Arkansas’ defense is terrible and they were able to at least make it an interesting game headed into the fourth quarter.
The absurdity of Chris Todd being considered a good quarterback finally came into the light for the masses that really believed in him. A 15 of 28 for 133 yards and 0 TDs, while averaging an outstanding 4.8 yards per pass attempt, performance should be enough to remind even the most blind loyalist that this was Chris Todd we’ve been talking about all season, not Joe Montana (by the way, is Joe Montana a dated reference now? He was just the first guy that popped in my head. I really think he might be. Anyway, Chris Todd would be along the lines of a Jay Schroeder.).
Fortunately for Auburn, Kentucky comes to town next weekend and that should get them at least bowl eligible this year, which I never thought would happen, and they’ll be able to get away with Todd playing another game at quarterback. I’ll be interested to see how this Auburn offense plays the rest of the year now that Arkansas has shown teams that have defensive talent how to defend Auburn.
As for Arkansas, this was a huge win for them. They’re sitting at 3-2 with Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina coming up in three of their next four games. They won’t beat Florida, Ole Miss is certainly a winnable game, but road games in the SEC are always hard, and South Carolina will thoroughly enjoy playing against that awful defense. If they had lost this game, they’d be looking at 2-3 with three really tough games coming up. Now a bowl game is almost a certainty, barring a collapse, and they have another seven weeks with which to lecture Ole Miss fans on the shortcomings of Houston Nutt.
Army 16, Vanderbilt 13
Ole Miss’ lone conference win came against a team that was beaten by a team whose other two wins were over Ball State and Eastern Michigan.
Tennessee 45, Georgia 19
I don’t know where the real Jonathan Crompton went but his rental is due back tomorrow by noon. In a performance that shook me to my core, Rental Jonathan Crompton went 20 of 27 for 310 yards and four touchdowns. But just to throw everyone off the scent that this might not actually be Jonathan Crompton, the rental version did throw one interception. This offensive output by Tennessee give Arkansas fans legitimate material with which to argue that Georgia’s defense, not theirs, is the worst in the conference. I heard this score in the bathroom at the Ole Miss game and assumed the guy who reported it was a fifth deep in Kentucky Gentleman or whatever cheap brand of whiskey that was oozing out of him.
And for everyone but Georgia fans’ entertainment, Joe Cox has thrown his hat in the ring for the worst quarterback in the league and is putting up a strong effort for the 2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy (I’ll be unveiling this later in this post) with another two interceptions. Unfortunately for the rest of us, I’m not sure how much longer we’ll get to watch Cox disappoint the Bulldog faithful. Surely he’s nearing the end of Mark Richt’s patience with him and a change will be coming soon (Richt, by the way, is reeking of mediocrity). For my benefit, I hope he hangs around.
As for Tennessee, they’ll get to enjoy this win for another two weeks before going to Alabama and ending what tiny shred of confidence Crompton had built for himself. I suspect we’ll get another Florida-like gameplan from the Vols in that one, but I fully expect a handful of poor to quite poor decisions.
South Carolina 28, Kentucky 26
Our first casualty for the Awww-Shit Trophy, Mike Hartline is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. Hopefully, he’ll return and make a solid late season push to claim the trophy for which he was the leading candidate.
Houston 31, Mississippi State 24
Another four turnovers for the Mississippi State offense and another game the Bulldogs had a great chance to win. As expected State pounded away at Houston, rushing for 330 yards, and, as expected, gave up eight miles of passing yards on defense. I can’t name a single player in State’s secondary but I can believe that counting yourself and the next three people you see, the four of you would have close to the same results as State’s secondary is currently producing. To their credit, they did intercept two passes, a feat that I don’t think you and three friends could match, but you could certainly get one.
With a defense that bleeds yards and points, a two-win season is still a possibility for this State team. If they can beat Middle Tennessee State on Saturday, I can see them getting to four, possibly five, wins. If not, this could be one of the most competitive two-win teams ever.
Alabama 22, Ole Miss 3
Remember what happened to all those people in Jonestown that drank the kool-aid? They died. And for all those, including myself, who so readily swilled the Ole Miss kool-aid even when a lifetime of experience said not to, we are now all dead. Dead to Atlanta. Dead to any hope for the rest of the season. Dead to anything but our standard third to sixth place finish in the SEC West. It is our lot in life and to think otherwise is just stupid.
Now that my soul is numb, let’s talk about this game. If you haven’t seen Alabama play in person, you really don’t have a good feel for just how fast they are on defense. Oh, and they’re really big up front too. Fast and big makes it really hard to have much success on offense. They pushed Ole Miss’ offensive line around, shut down the running game and although they never sacked Jevan Snead, they did hit and harass him into a performance for the record books (the bad kind of record books). The last time I saw an offense that helpless was when the Shrimp Boat Captain hung his Red Bull on the shoulders of Seth Adams and Brent Schaeffer. To put it in perspective, the BancorpSouth Play of the Game on the JumboTron was a seven yard run by Enrique Davis, which helped lead to our lone score.
One of the startling differences in the game for me was between the two quarterbacks. Alabama’s Greg McElroy is an average college quarterback, but he doesn’t make mistakes and understands his defense is his best friend. But what really stands out between him and Snead is that he isn’t afraid or nervous in the pocket. He knows that he’s going to get hit on some plays, but he stands in, delivers the throw and takes the hit. It’s what all quarterbacks must learn to do if they want to have any kind of success.
Jevan Snead doesn’t play that way. He doesn’t like to stand in the pocket, he starts dancing around as soon as he gets the first sign the defense is closing in and rarely does he step into a throw and get a good delivery on the ball. I’m not sure exactly why that is, maybe he doesn’t trust his offensive line, maybe he’s always looking to make a big play or maybe he stinks. People seem to believe the real Snead is the one we saw in the last six games of 2008 and not the guy in the first seven games. Well, what if he is the guy from the first seven games last year? Maybe the fake Snead is the guy who played out of his mind at the end of 2008. Seriously, what has he shown this year that reminded you of late 2008? Other than the first half of the Vandy game and a few sporadic moments against Memphis and SELA, I can’t recall anything.
Now the big question is how much longer does Snead get to prove that he is the guy from the end of last year? Obviously he’ll start against UAB, but the following week we play Arkansas and that’s a game that should be won. If he struggles through the first half then, I have a hard time seeing any reason to keep him on the field. His incompletions hurt, making the offense stagnant and such, but it’s his turnovers that are absolute killers. He has to take a page from Greg McElroy’s book if he wants to keep playing quarterback at Ole Miss.
Moving along to the next target, I choose you, Ole Miss offensive line. Actually, as far as pass blocking goes, I thought they played okay. Not great, but they were serviceable considering the defense they were facing. Bradley Sowell took another step in making up for his comments after the South Carolina game, looking much less like a matador and more like an actual offensive lineman. As far as run blocking though, they were dominated. I’m sure some of it had to do with Alabama not being afraid of Snead’s ability to throw incompletions, which means they could stack eight or nine guys near the line, but even so, you expect to get a few decent runs instead of about zero.
The only bright spot for the day, and most likely the only one for the season, was the Ole Miss defense. It’s typical Ole Miss that we’ll end up wasting what has to be one of, if not the, best defenses in the history of the school. That group was simply unbelievable when you look at what they accomplished on Saturday. Alabama had six scoring drives and FOUR OF THEM STARTED IN OLE MISS TERRITORY thanks to offensive and/or special teams buffoonery. And one of those four started at the Ole Miss four. As in four yards away from the end zone. They gave up 22 points out of the bag of shit they were constantly handed, and this was to an offense averaging 40 points a game. If not for their effort (and I read today that Alabama ran 78 plays, which makes their effort even more amazing), this game would have looked something like 48-3. I hope they gave a collective punch to the offense’s man parts after the game.
So can Ole Miss pull this season out of the freefall that’s headed towards terminal velocity if things continue as they are? It all depends on whatever is going on offensively. If we can become an average, ball control offense that relies on our defense, perhaps eight or nine wins is not out of the question. We still have the easiest schedule in the conference and have two more sure wins (I think) in UAB and Northern Arizona, and it’s not unreasonable to think that out of the last five conference games (three of which are at home) this team could win four, so eight or nine wins is doable. But I also thought going to Atlanta was doable.
One final thing here, just so I’m perfectly clear, ALABAMA IS A GOOD TEAM. THEY WILL BE PLAYING IN ATLANTA AND POSSIBLY IN A VERY IMPORTANT GAME BEYOND THAT. I AM AN IDIOT FOR NOT ONLY PICKING OLE MISS TO WIN THIS GAME BUT ALSO TO GO TO ATLANTA. I REGRET MY STUPIDITY.
Florida 13, LSU 3
Luckily for Ole Miss, LSU provided the worst offensive performance of the day. 162 yards of total offense, 77 of which came on the drive that produced a field goal. I am already excited about the defensive orgy that awaits everyone when Ole Miss and LSU play.
I was only able to see the second half of this game, but from what I saw I thought Florida played very conservatively, partly to protect a concussed Tim Tebow and partly because they knew LSU wasn’t going anywhere on offense. In defense of Jordan Jefferson and LSU, at least he (and they) did not rack up five turnovers, a blocked punt and surrender a first down off a fake punt. Had they, maybe they too would have lost 22-3.
GAME I DIDN’T PICK BUT DESERVES MENTION HERE
Iowa 30, Michigan 28
As I understand it, Iowa was ranked 12th, undefeated and facing a Michigan team fresh off a loss to mighty Michigan State. Michigan was also on the road playing with two freshmen quarterbacks and turned the ball over five times. And yet, when Iowa won the game, what did its fans do? Let out a huge gasp? Curse the team for putting them through all that crap? Treat the hypothermia they were probably experiencing from freezing their asses off for over three hours? No, they did none of these (well, not sure about the hypothermia). Rather, they charged the field. Seriously. Ranked, undefeated and they all ran out on the field to celebrate beating a one-loss, shitty, led-by-freshmen Michigan team. Yet another reason why the Big Ten sucks.
DEUCE MCALLISTER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who dominated with or without the help of his teammates and coaches.)
Jonathan Crompton, QB, Tennessee
Surely you jest, Gray. Crompton? I know, I’m as stunned as you are. I was convinced he wouldn’t throw four touchdowns the rest of the year and he somehow got four in this game. And threw for 300 yards. Odds are he’ll never be seen in this space again, but for at least one week Tennessee fans don’t want to literally kill him.
ERIC OLIVER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who caused his team’s fans the highest degree of wailing and gnashing of teeth due to blown assignments and generally piss poor play.)
Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
A 2 for 12 first half performance set the stage for this week’s winner. Snead finished 11 of 34 for 140 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs. It was an epic failure. In his defense, two of the interceptions were not his fault, but the other two were so bad they should have counted as two each. I’d like to think this is the last time we’ll see Snead in this spot, but I also like to think I’m going to win the Tennessee lottery.
JOHN VAUGHT OF THE WEEK
(Given to the coach who dominated whatever task was in front of him.)
Nick Saban, Alabama
Going into what was billed the biggest test yet for his team, Saban’s team, namely his defense, plowed through Ole Miss on its way to a dominating 22-3 win. The next challenge for Saban is to see that no one is injured before reaching Atlanta in December.
2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy Leaderboard
A new feature added to the weekend wrap-up. This is simply a way to keep track of the quarterbacks of the SEC and their interception totals. The trophy, which gets its name from the reaction of fans when their team’s quarterback throws an interception (“Awww-shit!!!), will be awarded at the end of the year to the quarterback who throws the most interceptions. A more prestigious award I cannot recall.
Week 6 Standings
1. Jonathan Crompton 9
1. Jevan Snead 9
3. Joe Cox 8
4. Mike Hartline 6
4. Tyson Lee 6
4. Larry Smith 6
WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEK
South Carolina at Alabama
Another chance for Nick Saban to show that he consumes offenses with the ease that Jerrell Powe shows while working his way through catfish baskets.
Arkansas at Florida
I’ll be looking to see if Florida shuts down the Arkansas offense with the same degree of efficiency as Alabama.
UAB at Ole Miss
The Nathan Stanley watch has begun.
GAME RECAPS
Arkansas 44, Auburn 23
That loud sound you heard early Saturday afternoon was not the collapse of the Ole Miss house of cards (that actually came later in the afternoon), but reality colliding headfirst with the Auburn bandwagon. As predicted, the Arkansas offense obliterated the Auburn defense and got just enough out of their defense to remind everyone that Auburn, while better than last year, isn’t that good.
The Hogs ran up 495 yards of total offense, held the ball for over 38 minutes and at one point led 34-3. If they had any form of defense, they would have won this one by an even larger margin. But give credit to the Auburn offense for finally recognizing that Arkansas’ defense is terrible and they were able to at least make it an interesting game headed into the fourth quarter.
The absurdity of Chris Todd being considered a good quarterback finally came into the light for the masses that really believed in him. A 15 of 28 for 133 yards and 0 TDs, while averaging an outstanding 4.8 yards per pass attempt, performance should be enough to remind even the most blind loyalist that this was Chris Todd we’ve been talking about all season, not Joe Montana (by the way, is Joe Montana a dated reference now? He was just the first guy that popped in my head. I really think he might be. Anyway, Chris Todd would be along the lines of a Jay Schroeder.).
Fortunately for Auburn, Kentucky comes to town next weekend and that should get them at least bowl eligible this year, which I never thought would happen, and they’ll be able to get away with Todd playing another game at quarterback. I’ll be interested to see how this Auburn offense plays the rest of the year now that Arkansas has shown teams that have defensive talent how to defend Auburn.
As for Arkansas, this was a huge win for them. They’re sitting at 3-2 with Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina coming up in three of their next four games. They won’t beat Florida, Ole Miss is certainly a winnable game, but road games in the SEC are always hard, and South Carolina will thoroughly enjoy playing against that awful defense. If they had lost this game, they’d be looking at 2-3 with three really tough games coming up. Now a bowl game is almost a certainty, barring a collapse, and they have another seven weeks with which to lecture Ole Miss fans on the shortcomings of Houston Nutt.
Army 16, Vanderbilt 13
Ole Miss’ lone conference win came against a team that was beaten by a team whose other two wins were over Ball State and Eastern Michigan.
Tennessee 45, Georgia 19
I don’t know where the real Jonathan Crompton went but his rental is due back tomorrow by noon. In a performance that shook me to my core, Rental Jonathan Crompton went 20 of 27 for 310 yards and four touchdowns. But just to throw everyone off the scent that this might not actually be Jonathan Crompton, the rental version did throw one interception. This offensive output by Tennessee give Arkansas fans legitimate material with which to argue that Georgia’s defense, not theirs, is the worst in the conference. I heard this score in the bathroom at the Ole Miss game and assumed the guy who reported it was a fifth deep in Kentucky Gentleman or whatever cheap brand of whiskey that was oozing out of him.
And for everyone but Georgia fans’ entertainment, Joe Cox has thrown his hat in the ring for the worst quarterback in the league and is putting up a strong effort for the 2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy (I’ll be unveiling this later in this post) with another two interceptions. Unfortunately for the rest of us, I’m not sure how much longer we’ll get to watch Cox disappoint the Bulldog faithful. Surely he’s nearing the end of Mark Richt’s patience with him and a change will be coming soon (Richt, by the way, is reeking of mediocrity). For my benefit, I hope he hangs around.
As for Tennessee, they’ll get to enjoy this win for another two weeks before going to Alabama and ending what tiny shred of confidence Crompton had built for himself. I suspect we’ll get another Florida-like gameplan from the Vols in that one, but I fully expect a handful of poor to quite poor decisions.
South Carolina 28, Kentucky 26
Our first casualty for the Awww-Shit Trophy, Mike Hartline is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. Hopefully, he’ll return and make a solid late season push to claim the trophy for which he was the leading candidate.
Houston 31, Mississippi State 24
Another four turnovers for the Mississippi State offense and another game the Bulldogs had a great chance to win. As expected State pounded away at Houston, rushing for 330 yards, and, as expected, gave up eight miles of passing yards on defense. I can’t name a single player in State’s secondary but I can believe that counting yourself and the next three people you see, the four of you would have close to the same results as State’s secondary is currently producing. To their credit, they did intercept two passes, a feat that I don’t think you and three friends could match, but you could certainly get one.
With a defense that bleeds yards and points, a two-win season is still a possibility for this State team. If they can beat Middle Tennessee State on Saturday, I can see them getting to four, possibly five, wins. If not, this could be one of the most competitive two-win teams ever.
Alabama 22, Ole Miss 3
Remember what happened to all those people in Jonestown that drank the kool-aid? They died. And for all those, including myself, who so readily swilled the Ole Miss kool-aid even when a lifetime of experience said not to, we are now all dead. Dead to Atlanta. Dead to any hope for the rest of the season. Dead to anything but our standard third to sixth place finish in the SEC West. It is our lot in life and to think otherwise is just stupid.
Now that my soul is numb, let’s talk about this game. If you haven’t seen Alabama play in person, you really don’t have a good feel for just how fast they are on defense. Oh, and they’re really big up front too. Fast and big makes it really hard to have much success on offense. They pushed Ole Miss’ offensive line around, shut down the running game and although they never sacked Jevan Snead, they did hit and harass him into a performance for the record books (the bad kind of record books). The last time I saw an offense that helpless was when the Shrimp Boat Captain hung his Red Bull on the shoulders of Seth Adams and Brent Schaeffer. To put it in perspective, the BancorpSouth Play of the Game on the JumboTron was a seven yard run by Enrique Davis, which helped lead to our lone score.
One of the startling differences in the game for me was between the two quarterbacks. Alabama’s Greg McElroy is an average college quarterback, but he doesn’t make mistakes and understands his defense is his best friend. But what really stands out between him and Snead is that he isn’t afraid or nervous in the pocket. He knows that he’s going to get hit on some plays, but he stands in, delivers the throw and takes the hit. It’s what all quarterbacks must learn to do if they want to have any kind of success.
Jevan Snead doesn’t play that way. He doesn’t like to stand in the pocket, he starts dancing around as soon as he gets the first sign the defense is closing in and rarely does he step into a throw and get a good delivery on the ball. I’m not sure exactly why that is, maybe he doesn’t trust his offensive line, maybe he’s always looking to make a big play or maybe he stinks. People seem to believe the real Snead is the one we saw in the last six games of 2008 and not the guy in the first seven games. Well, what if he is the guy from the first seven games last year? Maybe the fake Snead is the guy who played out of his mind at the end of 2008. Seriously, what has he shown this year that reminded you of late 2008? Other than the first half of the Vandy game and a few sporadic moments against Memphis and SELA, I can’t recall anything.
Now the big question is how much longer does Snead get to prove that he is the guy from the end of last year? Obviously he’ll start against UAB, but the following week we play Arkansas and that’s a game that should be won. If he struggles through the first half then, I have a hard time seeing any reason to keep him on the field. His incompletions hurt, making the offense stagnant and such, but it’s his turnovers that are absolute killers. He has to take a page from Greg McElroy’s book if he wants to keep playing quarterback at Ole Miss.
Moving along to the next target, I choose you, Ole Miss offensive line. Actually, as far as pass blocking goes, I thought they played okay. Not great, but they were serviceable considering the defense they were facing. Bradley Sowell took another step in making up for his comments after the South Carolina game, looking much less like a matador and more like an actual offensive lineman. As far as run blocking though, they were dominated. I’m sure some of it had to do with Alabama not being afraid of Snead’s ability to throw incompletions, which means they could stack eight or nine guys near the line, but even so, you expect to get a few decent runs instead of about zero.
The only bright spot for the day, and most likely the only one for the season, was the Ole Miss defense. It’s typical Ole Miss that we’ll end up wasting what has to be one of, if not the, best defenses in the history of the school. That group was simply unbelievable when you look at what they accomplished on Saturday. Alabama had six scoring drives and FOUR OF THEM STARTED IN OLE MISS TERRITORY thanks to offensive and/or special teams buffoonery. And one of those four started at the Ole Miss four. As in four yards away from the end zone. They gave up 22 points out of the bag of shit they were constantly handed, and this was to an offense averaging 40 points a game. If not for their effort (and I read today that Alabama ran 78 plays, which makes their effort even more amazing), this game would have looked something like 48-3. I hope they gave a collective punch to the offense’s man parts after the game.
So can Ole Miss pull this season out of the freefall that’s headed towards terminal velocity if things continue as they are? It all depends on whatever is going on offensively. If we can become an average, ball control offense that relies on our defense, perhaps eight or nine wins is not out of the question. We still have the easiest schedule in the conference and have two more sure wins (I think) in UAB and Northern Arizona, and it’s not unreasonable to think that out of the last five conference games (three of which are at home) this team could win four, so eight or nine wins is doable. But I also thought going to Atlanta was doable.
One final thing here, just so I’m perfectly clear, ALABAMA IS A GOOD TEAM. THEY WILL BE PLAYING IN ATLANTA AND POSSIBLY IN A VERY IMPORTANT GAME BEYOND THAT. I AM AN IDIOT FOR NOT ONLY PICKING OLE MISS TO WIN THIS GAME BUT ALSO TO GO TO ATLANTA. I REGRET MY STUPIDITY.
Florida 13, LSU 3
Luckily for Ole Miss, LSU provided the worst offensive performance of the day. 162 yards of total offense, 77 of which came on the drive that produced a field goal. I am already excited about the defensive orgy that awaits everyone when Ole Miss and LSU play.
I was only able to see the second half of this game, but from what I saw I thought Florida played very conservatively, partly to protect a concussed Tim Tebow and partly because they knew LSU wasn’t going anywhere on offense. In defense of Jordan Jefferson and LSU, at least he (and they) did not rack up five turnovers, a blocked punt and surrender a first down off a fake punt. Had they, maybe they too would have lost 22-3.
GAME I DIDN’T PICK BUT DESERVES MENTION HERE
Iowa 30, Michigan 28
As I understand it, Iowa was ranked 12th, undefeated and facing a Michigan team fresh off a loss to mighty Michigan State. Michigan was also on the road playing with two freshmen quarterbacks and turned the ball over five times. And yet, when Iowa won the game, what did its fans do? Let out a huge gasp? Curse the team for putting them through all that crap? Treat the hypothermia they were probably experiencing from freezing their asses off for over three hours? No, they did none of these (well, not sure about the hypothermia). Rather, they charged the field. Seriously. Ranked, undefeated and they all ran out on the field to celebrate beating a one-loss, shitty, led-by-freshmen Michigan team. Yet another reason why the Big Ten sucks.
DEUCE MCALLISTER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who dominated with or without the help of his teammates and coaches.)
Jonathan Crompton, QB, Tennessee
Surely you jest, Gray. Crompton? I know, I’m as stunned as you are. I was convinced he wouldn’t throw four touchdowns the rest of the year and he somehow got four in this game. And threw for 300 yards. Odds are he’ll never be seen in this space again, but for at least one week Tennessee fans don’t want to literally kill him.
ERIC OLIVER OF THE WEEK
(Given to the player who caused his team’s fans the highest degree of wailing and gnashing of teeth due to blown assignments and generally piss poor play.)
Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
A 2 for 12 first half performance set the stage for this week’s winner. Snead finished 11 of 34 for 140 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs. It was an epic failure. In his defense, two of the interceptions were not his fault, but the other two were so bad they should have counted as two each. I’d like to think this is the last time we’ll see Snead in this spot, but I also like to think I’m going to win the Tennessee lottery.
JOHN VAUGHT OF THE WEEK
(Given to the coach who dominated whatever task was in front of him.)
Nick Saban, Alabama
Going into what was billed the biggest test yet for his team, Saban’s team, namely his defense, plowed through Ole Miss on its way to a dominating 22-3 win. The next challenge for Saban is to see that no one is injured before reaching Atlanta in December.
2009 SEC Awww-Shit Trophy Leaderboard
A new feature added to the weekend wrap-up. This is simply a way to keep track of the quarterbacks of the SEC and their interception totals. The trophy, which gets its name from the reaction of fans when their team’s quarterback throws an interception (“Awww-shit!!!), will be awarded at the end of the year to the quarterback who throws the most interceptions. A more prestigious award I cannot recall.
Week 6 Standings
1. Jonathan Crompton 9
1. Jevan Snead 9
3. Joe Cox 8
4. Mike Hartline 6
4. Tyson Lee 6
4. Larry Smith 6
WHAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEK
South Carolina at Alabama
Another chance for Nick Saban to show that he consumes offenses with the ease that Jerrell Powe shows while working his way through catfish baskets.
Arkansas at Florida
I’ll be looking to see if Florida shuts down the Arkansas offense with the same degree of efficiency as Alabama.
UAB at Ole Miss
The Nathan Stanley watch has begun.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
SEC Picks of Week 6
Sorry for the second straight week without the call-in show, but technical difficulties prevented it from getting posted. And by technical difficulties, I mean I was too lazy to do it. Seriously, do you know how hard it is to come up with the questions and the answers? I can barely do one, much less two.
Anyway, these picks were made while hoping the Missouri/Nebraska weather doesn't find its way to Oxford.
Last week: 7-0
Season: 38-4 (.905)
Auburn at Arkansas
The first of some potentially really good games in the SEC this week. Here we have two offenses that are lighting it up (save for Arkansas’ showing against Alabama) and two defenses that are helping opposing offenses light up the yardage and points categories. Usually when a collision of this nature happens, we get a Georgia/Arkansas type game from earlier this year. But the one thing I notice about this matchup is that Arkansas actually has a decent run defense (7th in the SEC), and if you’ve watched Auburn, their offense is based on running the ball. Now, you can point out that Auburn has the second best passing offense in the SEC and Arkansas has the worst pass defense, but I would argue that Auburn’s passing game in a beneficiary of a great running game and a multitude of piss poor defenses (which Arkansas admittedly is).
So what does all that mean? I think Arkansas has the ability to load up and challenge Auburn’s ability to run the ball. It’s entirely possible that Arkansas’ run defense is actually rated higher than it is because everyone elects to pass on them, but their best chance of winning this game is to dare Chris Todd and his mediocre arm to beat them. Let’s all remember that Chris Todd stinks. I don’t care what his stats say, he stinks. The more times he has to throw, the better Arkansas’ chances are.
On the other side, Auburn’s defense does nothing well. They’re 9th against the run and 10th against the pass. And they’re about to run into a competent quarterback and a well-coached offense. Barring a West Virginia-esque six turnover game, the Arkansas offense is going to blow the Auburn defense apart (actually, West Virginia blew them apart as well, but the turnovers made it much less abusive). And that’s why I’m taking the Hogs in this one. I think they have a better shot at stopping the one thing Auburn has to do in order to have a successful offense. Arkansas can get away without having much by way of the run, but Auburn cannot.
Vanderbilt at Army
Remember about three paragraphs ago when I mentioned all of the potentially great games in the SEC? This is not one of them. I think this game ties the Vandy/Rice game as worst game of the year so far. Let’s go nuts, I’ll take Vandy here.
Georgia at Tennessee
Interesting note about this game, Tennessee is actually four spots higher in total offense than Georgia (6th to 10th). I think some of that may have to do with the Vols feasting on Western Kentucky and Ohio while Georgia took on Oklahoma State and Arizona State. Because no one in their right minds would believe Tennessee has more competent on offense than Georgia. No one. As pitiful as Joe Cox can be, Jonathan Crompton is virtually untouchable in his lack of quarterbacking skill. If only Wesley Carroll were still in the league, then we could have a debate.
Anyway, from everything I’ve read this week, the consensus seems to be that this is a game Tennessee should win. To that I say why? What has Tennessee shown that makes anyone think they can win this game? Let’s look at games against non-completely shitty teams, of which Tennessee has only played three (UCLA, Florida and Auburn). In these three games, the Vols have put up a whopping 16.7 points a game, which fits right in with the Ed Orgeron era at Ole Miss. Georgia, by contrast, has not played a shitty team and averages 27.2 points a game.
Yes, Georgia’s defense has been awful, but some of that goes to the quality of teams they’ve played and their offense leading the way to a -9 turnover margin (worst in the SEC). But the Bulldog defense is good enough to limit bad offenses like they did to LSU’s last week. Tennessee does offer a better defense (although nothing spectacular), but if they can’t score they can’t win. There’s no way I can pick a team with an offense this bad unless they have an outstanding defense, which they don’t. Georgia wins.
Kentucky at South Carolina
Steve Spurrier is 16-0 against Kentucky. Do you think he’s going to lose to Mike Hartline? Pretty easy pick here. Something I did want to talk about which was brought up in the comments section of the last post on here was the absurd celebration penalties called in the Georgia/LSU game last week.
SEC Commissioner Mike Slive said at a speaking event this week that he’s “just never felt that a public hanging in the square" will make better officials. This is true, Mike. But you know what will make better officials? Hiring ones that don’t suck.
Houston at Mississippi State
Houston can’t stop anything, nor can Mississippi State to a lesser degree. However, a few weeks ago, this game looked like Houston would embarrass yet another team outside of Conference USA. Now, not so much. If someone no one has ever heard of on a team barely recognizable slashes Houston for over 260 yards on the ground, what might a running team like Mississippi State do with allegedly better talent? If I'm Dan Mullen, I don't let the two-headed monster of Tyson Lee and Chris Relf throw more than 12 passes and I make sure each of my top three running backs each get 20 carries. This way, State can control the clock and keep Houston from throwing for Texas Tech-versus-the-Ole Miss-4-2-5-defense-in-2003 yardage (which was an NCAA record at the time) because State has the pass defense that could give up numbers like that. State may also get the benefit of some rain, which should make it harder for Houston to throw. I don't think it will be the flood-like rain currently happening in Columbia right now, but a little bit can always help.
I'd like to take State here, but their turnover problems in the past few games (they're also 10th in the SEC in penalties) and the overwhelming fact that Tyson Lee and/or Chris Relf will be prominently involved in this game are forcing me into Houston. I don't think State will be able to stop Houston at all and State should rack up some points as well, but those two guys will do something that will lead to the loss. But take heart State fans, it's almost unbelievable how much better coached this team is than those under the Sylvester Croom era. If this year's team played last year's, they'd win by three touchdowns. While both coaches and players still make plenty of mistakes and I don't know if Mullen (or any coach) will break the mold of inexperienced coaches having no success in bad situations, but at least you have a chance now.
Alabama at Ole Miss
The game that was set up to be an Armageddon game between two top five teams until Ole Miss lost to another SEC team on the road on a Thursday night by six points and was declared one of the most overrated teams in the country. Now, it's just a top three team taking on a top 20 team. Yawn. Seriously, Ole Miss should just give up. The same people who told them how great they were have now told them that they are actually terrible, and we all know those people are really, really smart and well-informed.
Here's what's at stake in this game: If Alabama wins, they essentially eliminate Ole Miss from contention in the West and prove they can beat a team with a good defense, which they have not done this season (I refuse to acknowledge Virginia Tech as a good defense because they aren't. They're 47th in the country in total defense). If Ole Miss wins, they're in real contention in the West (not that they aren't now) even though they've been left for dead and it proves to them and to everyone else that they can beat everyone in the West. If Alabama loses, they're still in the race. Yeah, one loss hurts, but I think they'd still be one of the favorites to win. If Ole Miss loses, they're done in the West with two conference losses and there's a chance the season could start to spiral out of control.
What all my inane gibberish means is that this game means much, much more to Ole Miss than it does to Alabama. That doesn't mean Alabama isn't going to play hard and be really average, but Ole Miss knows a successful season is on the line. Never count out what a sense of urgency can do for a team. And then there's the "nobody believes in us" factor, which is right in Houston Nutt's wheelhouse. You think he's going to milk that for all it's worth? A sense of urgency and an "us against the world" attitude can go a long way when a game of this magnitude comes along.
Leaving the mental game, let's move to the actual playing of the game. Alabama's offense has pretty much dominated everyone they've faced this year. But, as I mentioned earlier, that's come against some pretty bad defenses (although Kentucky does bring the pain at number 61). Ole Miss is currently ranked 16th in total defense and will make things much harder on them. I doubt they'll be able to run very well and will be forced to throw much more than they want, which, as well as Greg McElroy has played, benefits Ole Miss. An inexperienced quarterback on the road, facing a legitimate defense, carrying the offense because of a lack of a run game, is a definite positive for Ole Miss. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, that's where the good news sort of ends. Alabama's defense is really good. They've dominated everything that's come their way and a mistake-prone quarterback is just what they'd want.
Jevan Snead has to, I mean HAS TO, tap his end of 2008 self or there's no chance for Ole Miss. All of these dumb passes he's so fond of making need to go away. And in order to aid him in his decision making, the offensive line must pass block with a high degree of success. If not, we'll see something like the South Carolina game again, except much worse. However, I believe Ole Miss will have a little more success on offense than everyone is probably anticipating. This may be the first game in which Alabama's defense really feels the loss of Dont'a Hightower. The guy was a freak with his size and speed and could play linebacker or be used as a rush end. I'm sure Cory Reamer is a nice player but a freak he is not. When Hightower is in there, an offense has to worry about him and Rolando McClain, not that the other Crimson Tide defenders are slouches, but those two guys are destructive machines. It's much easier to worry about one than two.
So after plowing through all that you already knew, who's the pick here? Call it a hunch, call it putting way too much stock in the "season is on the line" and the "nobody believes in us" attitude, I'm taking Ole Miss. I think the defense will keep them in the game with their ability to limit Alabama's offense, which I'm not totally buying, and I think they'll get just enough on offense and ride the emotional wave I spent something like 250 words talking about. This may be a moronic homer pick, but I think they've got enough to pull it off.
Florida at LSU
Tebow-watch sort of reminds me of panda-watch in Anchorman. Everyone's eagerly waiting the news and throwing out their uninformed opinions, but no one knows anything. On Friday night, I fully expect a reporter giving a live report to turn around and yell to no one in particular that Tebow needs to show his face and call him a Tebow-jerk (I looked for the video so all the people who have no idea what I'm talking about wouldn't think I'm crazy. But if you don't know what I'm talking about, it means you haven't seen Anchorman and are therefore an idiot. So I have no problem with you assuming I'm crazy.).
Anyway, I don't think it really matters if Tebow plays or not because I think Florida will win either way. LSU's offense and defense are way too suspect to even consider an upset here. LSU's only chance will come if Florida turns the ball over four or five times. That many turnovers will be necessary because a Jordan Jefferson-lead offense will need as many chances as possible. Florida's defense should dominate and whatever they get on offense will be enough to win this one.
Anyway, these picks were made while hoping the Missouri/Nebraska weather doesn't find its way to Oxford.
Last week: 7-0
Season: 38-4 (.905)
Auburn at Arkansas
The first of some potentially really good games in the SEC this week. Here we have two offenses that are lighting it up (save for Arkansas’ showing against Alabama) and two defenses that are helping opposing offenses light up the yardage and points categories. Usually when a collision of this nature happens, we get a Georgia/Arkansas type game from earlier this year. But the one thing I notice about this matchup is that Arkansas actually has a decent run defense (7th in the SEC), and if you’ve watched Auburn, their offense is based on running the ball. Now, you can point out that Auburn has the second best passing offense in the SEC and Arkansas has the worst pass defense, but I would argue that Auburn’s passing game in a beneficiary of a great running game and a multitude of piss poor defenses (which Arkansas admittedly is).
So what does all that mean? I think Arkansas has the ability to load up and challenge Auburn’s ability to run the ball. It’s entirely possible that Arkansas’ run defense is actually rated higher than it is because everyone elects to pass on them, but their best chance of winning this game is to dare Chris Todd and his mediocre arm to beat them. Let’s all remember that Chris Todd stinks. I don’t care what his stats say, he stinks. The more times he has to throw, the better Arkansas’ chances are.
On the other side, Auburn’s defense does nothing well. They’re 9th against the run and 10th against the pass. And they’re about to run into a competent quarterback and a well-coached offense. Barring a West Virginia-esque six turnover game, the Arkansas offense is going to blow the Auburn defense apart (actually, West Virginia blew them apart as well, but the turnovers made it much less abusive). And that’s why I’m taking the Hogs in this one. I think they have a better shot at stopping the one thing Auburn has to do in order to have a successful offense. Arkansas can get away without having much by way of the run, but Auburn cannot.
Vanderbilt at Army
Remember about three paragraphs ago when I mentioned all of the potentially great games in the SEC? This is not one of them. I think this game ties the Vandy/Rice game as worst game of the year so far. Let’s go nuts, I’ll take Vandy here.
Georgia at Tennessee
Interesting note about this game, Tennessee is actually four spots higher in total offense than Georgia (6th to 10th). I think some of that may have to do with the Vols feasting on Western Kentucky and Ohio while Georgia took on Oklahoma State and Arizona State. Because no one in their right minds would believe Tennessee has more competent on offense than Georgia. No one. As pitiful as Joe Cox can be, Jonathan Crompton is virtually untouchable in his lack of quarterbacking skill. If only Wesley Carroll were still in the league, then we could have a debate.
Anyway, from everything I’ve read this week, the consensus seems to be that this is a game Tennessee should win. To that I say why? What has Tennessee shown that makes anyone think they can win this game? Let’s look at games against non-completely shitty teams, of which Tennessee has only played three (UCLA, Florida and Auburn). In these three games, the Vols have put up a whopping 16.7 points a game, which fits right in with the Ed Orgeron era at Ole Miss. Georgia, by contrast, has not played a shitty team and averages 27.2 points a game.
Yes, Georgia’s defense has been awful, but some of that goes to the quality of teams they’ve played and their offense leading the way to a -9 turnover margin (worst in the SEC). But the Bulldog defense is good enough to limit bad offenses like they did to LSU’s last week. Tennessee does offer a better defense (although nothing spectacular), but if they can’t score they can’t win. There’s no way I can pick a team with an offense this bad unless they have an outstanding defense, which they don’t. Georgia wins.
Kentucky at South Carolina
Steve Spurrier is 16-0 against Kentucky. Do you think he’s going to lose to Mike Hartline? Pretty easy pick here. Something I did want to talk about which was brought up in the comments section of the last post on here was the absurd celebration penalties called in the Georgia/LSU game last week.
SEC Commissioner Mike Slive said at a speaking event this week that he’s “just never felt that a public hanging in the square" will make better officials. This is true, Mike. But you know what will make better officials? Hiring ones that don’t suck.
Houston at Mississippi State
Houston can’t stop anything, nor can Mississippi State to a lesser degree. However, a few weeks ago, this game looked like Houston would embarrass yet another team outside of Conference USA. Now, not so much. If someone no one has ever heard of on a team barely recognizable slashes Houston for over 260 yards on the ground, what might a running team like Mississippi State do with allegedly better talent? If I'm Dan Mullen, I don't let the two-headed monster of Tyson Lee and Chris Relf throw more than 12 passes and I make sure each of my top three running backs each get 20 carries. This way, State can control the clock and keep Houston from throwing for Texas Tech-versus-the-Ole Miss-4-2-5-defense-in-2003 yardage (which was an NCAA record at the time) because State has the pass defense that could give up numbers like that. State may also get the benefit of some rain, which should make it harder for Houston to throw. I don't think it will be the flood-like rain currently happening in Columbia right now, but a little bit can always help.
I'd like to take State here, but their turnover problems in the past few games (they're also 10th in the SEC in penalties) and the overwhelming fact that Tyson Lee and/or Chris Relf will be prominently involved in this game are forcing me into Houston. I don't think State will be able to stop Houston at all and State should rack up some points as well, but those two guys will do something that will lead to the loss. But take heart State fans, it's almost unbelievable how much better coached this team is than those under the Sylvester Croom era. If this year's team played last year's, they'd win by three touchdowns. While both coaches and players still make plenty of mistakes and I don't know if Mullen (or any coach) will break the mold of inexperienced coaches having no success in bad situations, but at least you have a chance now.
Alabama at Ole Miss
The game that was set up to be an Armageddon game between two top five teams until Ole Miss lost to another SEC team on the road on a Thursday night by six points and was declared one of the most overrated teams in the country. Now, it's just a top three team taking on a top 20 team. Yawn. Seriously, Ole Miss should just give up. The same people who told them how great they were have now told them that they are actually terrible, and we all know those people are really, really smart and well-informed.
Here's what's at stake in this game: If Alabama wins, they essentially eliminate Ole Miss from contention in the West and prove they can beat a team with a good defense, which they have not done this season (I refuse to acknowledge Virginia Tech as a good defense because they aren't. They're 47th in the country in total defense). If Ole Miss wins, they're in real contention in the West (not that they aren't now) even though they've been left for dead and it proves to them and to everyone else that they can beat everyone in the West. If Alabama loses, they're still in the race. Yeah, one loss hurts, but I think they'd still be one of the favorites to win. If Ole Miss loses, they're done in the West with two conference losses and there's a chance the season could start to spiral out of control.
What all my inane gibberish means is that this game means much, much more to Ole Miss than it does to Alabama. That doesn't mean Alabama isn't going to play hard and be really average, but Ole Miss knows a successful season is on the line. Never count out what a sense of urgency can do for a team. And then there's the "nobody believes in us" factor, which is right in Houston Nutt's wheelhouse. You think he's going to milk that for all it's worth? A sense of urgency and an "us against the world" attitude can go a long way when a game of this magnitude comes along.
Leaving the mental game, let's move to the actual playing of the game. Alabama's offense has pretty much dominated everyone they've faced this year. But, as I mentioned earlier, that's come against some pretty bad defenses (although Kentucky does bring the pain at number 61). Ole Miss is currently ranked 16th in total defense and will make things much harder on them. I doubt they'll be able to run very well and will be forced to throw much more than they want, which, as well as Greg McElroy has played, benefits Ole Miss. An inexperienced quarterback on the road, facing a legitimate defense, carrying the offense because of a lack of a run game, is a definite positive for Ole Miss. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, that's where the good news sort of ends. Alabama's defense is really good. They've dominated everything that's come their way and a mistake-prone quarterback is just what they'd want.
Jevan Snead has to, I mean HAS TO, tap his end of 2008 self or there's no chance for Ole Miss. All of these dumb passes he's so fond of making need to go away. And in order to aid him in his decision making, the offensive line must pass block with a high degree of success. If not, we'll see something like the South Carolina game again, except much worse. However, I believe Ole Miss will have a little more success on offense than everyone is probably anticipating. This may be the first game in which Alabama's defense really feels the loss of Dont'a Hightower. The guy was a freak with his size and speed and could play linebacker or be used as a rush end. I'm sure Cory Reamer is a nice player but a freak he is not. When Hightower is in there, an offense has to worry about him and Rolando McClain, not that the other Crimson Tide defenders are slouches, but those two guys are destructive machines. It's much easier to worry about one than two.
So after plowing through all that you already knew, who's the pick here? Call it a hunch, call it putting way too much stock in the "season is on the line" and the "nobody believes in us" attitude, I'm taking Ole Miss. I think the defense will keep them in the game with their ability to limit Alabama's offense, which I'm not totally buying, and I think they'll get just enough on offense and ride the emotional wave I spent something like 250 words talking about. This may be a moronic homer pick, but I think they've got enough to pull it off.
Florida at LSU
Tebow-watch sort of reminds me of panda-watch in Anchorman. Everyone's eagerly waiting the news and throwing out their uninformed opinions, but no one knows anything. On Friday night, I fully expect a reporter giving a live report to turn around and yell to no one in particular that Tebow needs to show his face and call him a Tebow-jerk (I looked for the video so all the people who have no idea what I'm talking about wouldn't think I'm crazy. But if you don't know what I'm talking about, it means you haven't seen Anchorman and are therefore an idiot. So I have no problem with you assuming I'm crazy.).
Anyway, I don't think it really matters if Tebow plays or not because I think Florida will win either way. LSU's offense and defense are way too suspect to even consider an upset here. LSU's only chance will come if Florida turns the ball over four or five times. That many turnovers will be necessary because a Jordan Jefferson-lead offense will need as many chances as possible. Florida's defense should dominate and whatever they get on offense will be enough to win this one.
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